Flu season could collide with COVID-19 this fall and winter

TThe previous two flu seasons within the US have been mercifully gentle — one of many few silver linings on the pandemic’s horizon, as measures to comprise COVID-19 doubtless prevented many circumstances of influenza as effectively.

However our luck might run out this yr. Australia, which regularly serves as an (imperfect) indicator of what is in retailer for the US, has had its worst flu season in half a decade this yr, reviews CNN. Flu season additionally began early this yr in Australia, one other potential harbinger of what is to return within the northern hemisphere.

dr Alicia Fry, chief of the Division of Epidemiology and Prevention on the Influenza Division of the US Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention (CDC), warns, “For those who’ve seen flu season, you’ve got seen flu season” — which means: Viruses are unpredictable and assumptions about them should not at all times appropriate. “Whether or not it’ll be a tricky season or a gentle season, or what to anticipate, or what viruses may be circulating — we simply do not know,” says Fry.

Nonetheless, there are some elements that would put together the US for a extra severe flu season this yr, says Dr. Brandon Webb, an infectious illness specialist at Intermountain Medical Heart in Utah. The severity of the flu season varies considerably from yr to yr, relying on elements comparable to group immunity and the circulating pressure of influenza. “Individuals who acquired the flu the yr earlier than are more likely to transmit incomplete or partial immunity,” Webb explains. With few folks getting contaminated over the past two flu seasons, “we’re seeing file ranges of group immunity to influenza all over the world, and significantly within the US.”

Enjoyable COVID-19 containment measures comparable to masking, social distancing, and distant work and coaching might additionally enable influenza to unfold prefer it did earlier than the pandemic, Fry says.

Proceed studying: You possibly can nonetheless get COVID for a very long time if you’re vaccinated and boosted

The potential for a extreme flu season colliding with the still-prevalent SARS-CoV-2 virus is a priority for the healthcare system, Webb says. “If we’ve got even one average to extreme influenza season that leads to 300,000 or 400,000 hospital admissions, and still have to cope with a fall or winter COVID wave, it might put a pressure on hospital programs throughout the nation,” he says.

The very best factor for people is to get vaccinated sooner relatively than later, says Fry.

On September 1, federal well being officers really helpful a brand new bivalent COVID-19 booster focusing on presently circulating Omicron variants to folks ages 12 and older. The up to date photographs can be found to youth, teenagers and adults who’re not less than two months away from their final COVID-19 vaccine dose (though some consultants suggest ready just a little longer). Within the meantime, the CDC recommends getting the flu shot by the tip of October.

“If somebody desires to have each on the identical time, they’ll,” says Fry. In a Sept. 6 press briefing, White Home COVID-19 response coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha, too. “I actually imagine that is why God gave us two arms — one for the flu shot and the opposite for the COVID shot,” he mentioned.

In the future it may be even simpler to get double safety towards COVID-19 and the flu. Vaccine makers Moderna and Novavax are engaged on syringes that will assault each viruses in a single injection. It is not clear if or when these mixture syringes may be accessible, however their growth gives a glimpse of what life with COVID-19 and influenza may be like sooner or later.

Many unknowns stay about this yr’s looming flu season. Webb recommends keeping track of each COVID-19 and influenza charges and taking acceptable precautions. Individuals at greater danger of extreme respiratory illness, together with the aged and people with underlying medical situations, could need to take into account sporting a masks in crowded settings.

At the least one factor makes Webb optimistic about this yr’s flu season: Regardless of all of the rumors of pandemic fatigue, he believes there was a cultural shift in how folks cope with infectious ailments.

“Individuals on the whole are actually far more conscious of the significance of an infection management,” says Webb. “I want we had a unique tradition with regards to recognizing that while you’re sick, it is higher to remain at dwelling.”

write to Jamie Ducharme at jamie.ducharme@time.com.